Alliance support is continuing to fall, with the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) now in front of them in a new poll by LucidTalk, for the first time since August 2021.
Naomi Long’s party has dropped one point and is now sitting at 11%, with the Ulster Unionist Party up one point to 12%. Jim Allister’s TUV remain on 13% just ahead of the Ulster Unionists.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are up one point from August, now sitting at 18%. Sinn Féin have dropped one point to 25% but retain their comfortable lead ahead of all the other parties.
Claire Hanna’s Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) remain at 11%, now level with Alliance.
The Green Party has doubled their support since the start of the year and sit on 4%, ahead of People Before Profit and Aontu, both on 2%. Independents have dropped one point to 2%.
Nationalist parties have 38% of the total support, with unionist parties at 43%. Others and independents sit on 19% – this figure includes People Before Profit as they designate as other in the Assembly.
Five years ago, in October 2020, Alliance had a score of 16%, sitting in third place – comfortably ahead of the UUP, SDLP and TUV. They are now the fifth most popular party as support for the TUV and UUP grows.
Two weeks ago, Alliance leader Naomi Long called on the Secretary of State to set out the criteria for holding a border poll – which didn’t go down well with unionist parties. They have lobbied criticism her way for that decision, and the UUP have been particularly pushing her on her record as Justice Minister.
New Ulster Unionist MLA Jon Burrows has definitely made his entrance to the Assembly, and has already been dubbed as a future leader of the party. It’s yet to be seen whether his presence in the party will have a meaningful impact at the ballot box, but this poll will encourage the UUP.
The poll by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph was carried out from 17 October to 20 October. LucidTalk is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its regulations.
